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As May approaches and Bitcoin’s next halving draws near, hodlers, traders, and investors are all keen to know how this quadrennial event will affect the price of the world’s foremost cryptocurrency.
To delve further into the halving, we talked to traders Michaël van de Poppe and Scott Melker (aka The Wolf of All Streets) on our latest crypto markets show. The discussion also covered short term bullish and bearish scenarios for both Bitcoin and the stock market, why Bitcoin is still a non-correlated asset, and how trust in the U.S. dollar could wane in the coming years.
Bitcoin’s Unlikely Halving Scenario
During a recent livestream, crypto influencer, IvanonTech, analyzed how the halving event will affect the trading behavior of retail investors versus whales. He anticipates that there will be an increase in buying demand from retail investors in the days leading up to the halving, which will push Bitcoin’s price up. He cautions that this will give whales an opportunity to sell large amounts of Bitcoin without much slippage because the buying demand from retail investors will offset the potential price drop caused by a heavy liquidation.
When asked about the possibility of this scenario playing out, Melker was quick to respond:
“I think that’s possible. I think it’s almost equally possible that, you know, aliens come down from Mars and are horny for Bitcoin and hack all of our wallets and steal our Bitcoin in advance of the halving. To be honest, I think that’s one of the stupider things I’ve ever heard.”
Poppe was also quite skeptical of this scenario:
“I don’t really listen to any of these theories. They just don’t make sense. It’s speculation based on nothing, basically. I just want to watch the charts and that’s providing me the data that I need to have to trade.”
How to Trade the Halving
How will the halving actually play out? Poppe laid out his version of the upcoming event:
“So I just read the chart and what I feel like with the halving could be that we still see some slight rally coming into the next few weeks just so close to the event, which makes it a buy the rumor sell the news event…”
“Short term I just think it’s a big nonevent and doesn’t really matter. But long term it could kick off a bull market.”
Melker also recommended putting faith in the charts:
“The beauty of Bitcoin and crypto is that you don’t have to think of any of this stuff. You don’t need a narrative. People want a narrative, but you don’t need a narrative. It’s all in the charts… So I can tell you a day before or a week before what I’m seeing in the chart and what I’m going to do, but it’s not going to be because of the halving narrative.”
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